It is said that the acting president of the State Administration Council, U Myint Swe, stated at the National Defence and Security Council meeting on November 8, 2023, that the country could disintegrate. Some Myanmar political analysts have also analyzed that Myanmar could be fragmented. Now, in late 2024, as the situation is getting worse, we will examine whether the country can really be fallen apart.
If we look back at the history of how Myanmar came into being, before Myanmar existed, the indigenous ethnic groups lived separately in their own lands. What I mean is that Myanmar was not a nation-state like France or Germany from the beginning. There was no Burma(Myanmar) before. The British gathered these ethnic areas and made it Burma.
Later, when it was about to gain independence from the British, the indigenous ethnic groups had the potential to gain separate independence. The Bamar AFPFL leaders gathered them to jointly gain independence. That is why the current state of Myanmar gained independence. However, since Myanmar did not become a federal union with political equality, although there is a nominally existing Myanmar, there have been continuous rebellions and revolutions until now due to internal divisions.
Therefore, it can be said that Myanmar has been fragmented in terms of internal unity since its independence. However, the Bamar leaders were able to form a government organization that could cover the whole country and spread their administration throughout the country. In the field of international relations, they were able to maintain a semblance of existence as Myanmar.
Out of all the possible ways to maintain this, two main points can be seen as follows:
(1) The Burmese army was built up to be powerful and military forces were deployed throughout the country. They prevented the ethnic groups from gaining military power. They caused divisions among the armed groups within the same ethnic group. They also lured revolutionary leaders with the promise of power and money. They held ceasefire and peace talks. In this way, the ethnic revolutions have been prolonged, but they have not been able to defeat the Burmese army decisively. Because they could not defeat the Burmese army decisively, no matter how many internal revolutions there were, the Burmese government was able to maintain the state of Myanmar.
(2) Ethnic politicians and ethnic activists were arrested and imprisoned by the military and the administration through collaboration. They prevented ethnic political organizations from becoming strong. They established parallel Burmese political organizations under their influence in ethnic regions. They seduced political leaders with little influence by using power and money as a cover. Those who could not be seduced were arrested, imprisoned, and killed. In the cities where the government machinery existed, they made it impossible for ethnic politicians, parties, and revolutionary organizations to live. In this way, they maintained the ability to spread administrative power throughout the country, and no matter how many internal divisions there were, the Burmese government was able to maintain the state of Myanmar.
What I mean is that although the great land of Myanmar was internally divided, it was able to maintain its appearance as a country without collapsing the nationwide administration because it was covered by a thin layer of the Burmese army.
However, the differences in nationalism, ethnicity, and politics within the country could not be reconciled, and the ethnic revolutions have been prolonged until now. In addition to the old revolutionary organizations, new organizations have also emerged. New military and political alliances have been formed. At the same time, due to the mistakes of the Burmese army and Burmese politicians, the political and military landscape of Myanmar has also changed. The expansionist strategies of neighboring countries have also become innovative.
So, in the current situation, it can be seen that the ethnic revolutionary organizations are taking over their own territories. There are no remnants of the Burmese army and Burmese administration left in the territories they have captured. What I mean is that in the ethnic areas that the ethnic revolutionary organizations have recaptured, the Burmese army, which had covered the thin shell to keep Myanmar from collapsing, no longer exists. The Burmese administration, which was protected and spread by the Burmese army, also no longer exists.
In terms of the situation on the ground, the Min Aung Hlaing group, which claims to be the current caretaker government, no longer has any influence over those ethnic areas. The NUG, which is shouting that it is the only legitimate government, also has no influence. In practice, there is no longer a Myanmar government that can cover the whole country. After the great Burmese STANDARD ARMY suffered a series of humiliating defeats for more than 70 years, Myanmar, which had been internally divided, has now become a reality with its own territory and its own ruler.
However, ethnic groups have not yet officially stated that they will establish separate countries. So, it can be said that Myanmar is not completely separated with completely separate existences. How will they reunite this? How will they work together to create a union again?
Looking at the current situation, there are questions about whether the ethnic groups really want to unite and whether the Bamar people really want to re-establish a union with equality for all ethnic groups.
If they are really going to work towards a genuine union, it can be said that it is more than time to do what should be done decisively. For example:
(1) A government like the NUG, which assumes that it has the right to rule the whole of Myanmar based on the results from the 2008 constitution, is no longer practical at this time and cannot bring about the unification of all for the union. Therefore, it is necessary to form an interim government in which all ethnic groups are represented.
(2) There needs to be an organization or organizations representing the Bamar people or the Bamar state. If the Bamar people say that they don’t want to form a state and will rule the whole country, or if the Bamar people want similar structures like the 2008 constitution that can control the whole country, then it is more likely that they will continue to be divided.
(3) The ethnic groups also need an organization or a united organization that can truly represent their own people and their own territory. If disagreements, unresolved issues, territorial disputes between organizations, and further rebellions by armed groups that have joined this union cannot be resolved, they will continue to be divided.
(4) When uniting, no group should try to use the kind of political tricks that the Bamar polticians have used for over 70 years. These things are already known to everyone at this time, so they will only harm the unification.
(5) When assigning positions, for example, if a Kachin person is appointed as the chairman, the Karen people will not like it, and if a Rakhine person is appointed, the Chin people will not like it. Instead of looking at ethnicity, religion, age, military strength, population, etc., looking at competence and integrity will lead to a more modern way of thinking.
(6) When setting basic principles, it is best to aim for reasonable negotiations to achieve what should be achieved (for example, disagreements that cannot be resolved due to reliance on population, military strength, territory, etc.). It is also necessary to be in line with the current era (for example, there must only be one Shan State, there cannot be new states such as Kokang, Wa, etc., and conversely, all 135 ethnic groups (this does not mean that this is accepted) have the right to form 135 states, whether or not the Bamar state should be given more than one state, such as Lower Myanmar and Upper Myanmar). It is necessary to be able to negotiate smoothly on how the union will be formed, how the government at each level will be elected, and how it will be governed (they have been divided on these issues throughout). The issue of the army should be the last sector to be dealt with after everyone has negotiated and agreed.
If such an interim government can be formed, then –
(1) Myanmar will be able to escape the danger of fragmentation and start moving towards a union.
(2) In the international community, it will gain political support as a government in which all ethnic groups participate. (It is necessary not to play childish tricks like the previous successive Bamar governments, where they include ethnic people who listen to them in a personal capacity and say that all ethnic groups are included.)
(3) It will also launch a counter-offensive against China’s revival of the military council as a legitimate government.
In fact, Myanmar has already been fragmented. But it is not yet completely disintegrated. It is in a state where each part is being held. If they do not try to reunite in this situation, they may gradually become truly fragmented. This is a worrying situation for the people who want a federal Myanmar.
In conclusion, the people of Myanmar are fighting against all dictatorial systems, including the military dictatorship. Even if no one is left because of the coup military council’s bombings, they are sacrificing the revolution to the end, saying, “Let them rule only the shell of the country,” but because the future processes are not yet clear, they are worried about how their leaders will continue the journey.
Is Myanmar Falling Apart?
Sit Nyein Moe Zan
It is said that the acting president of the State Administration Council, U Myint Swe, stated at the National Defence and Security Council meeting on November 8, 2023, that the country could disintegrate. Some Myanmar political analysts have also analyzed that Myanmar could be fragmented. Now, in late 2024, as the situation is getting worse, we will examine whether the country can really be fallen apart.
If we look back at the history of how Myanmar came into being, before Myanmar existed, the indigenous ethnic groups lived separately in their own lands. What I mean is that Myanmar was not a nation-state like France or Germany from the beginning. There was no Burma(Myanmar) before. The British gathered these ethnic areas and made it Burma.
Later, when it was about to gain independence from the British, the indigenous ethnic groups had the potential to gain separate independence. The Bamar AFPFL leaders gathered them to jointly gain independence. That is why the current state of Myanmar gained independence. However, since Myanmar did not become a federal union with political equality, although there is a nominally existing Myanmar, there have been continuous rebellions and revolutions until now due to internal divisions.
Therefore, it can be said that Myanmar has been fragmented in terms of internal unity since its independence. However, the Bamar leaders were able to form a government organization that could cover the whole country and spread their administration throughout the country. In the field of international relations, they were able to maintain a semblance of existence as Myanmar.
Out of all the possible ways to maintain this, two main points can be seen as follows:
(1) The Burmese army was built up to be powerful and military forces were deployed throughout the country. They prevented the ethnic groups from gaining military power. They caused divisions among the armed groups within the same ethnic group. They also lured revolutionary leaders with the promise of power and money. They held ceasefire and peace talks. In this way, the ethnic revolutions have been prolonged, but they have not been able to defeat the Burmese army decisively. Because they could not defeat the Burmese army decisively, no matter how many internal revolutions there were, the Burmese government was able to maintain the state of Myanmar.
(2) Ethnic politicians and ethnic activists were arrested and imprisoned by the military and the administration through collaboration. They prevented ethnic political organizations from becoming strong. They established parallel Burmese political organizations under their influence in ethnic regions. They seduced political leaders with little influence by using power and money as a cover. Those who could not be seduced were arrested, imprisoned, and killed. In the cities where the government machinery existed, they made it impossible for ethnic politicians, parties, and revolutionary organizations to live. In this way, they maintained the ability to spread administrative power throughout the country, and no matter how many internal divisions there were, the Burmese government was able to maintain the state of Myanmar.
What I mean is that although the great land of Myanmar was internally divided, it was able to maintain its appearance as a country without collapsing the nationwide administration because it was covered by a thin layer of the Burmese army.
However, the differences in nationalism, ethnicity, and politics within the country could not be reconciled, and the ethnic revolutions have been prolonged until now. In addition to the old revolutionary organizations, new organizations have also emerged. New military and political alliances have been formed. At the same time, due to the mistakes of the Burmese army and Burmese politicians, the political and military landscape of Myanmar has also changed. The expansionist strategies of neighboring countries have also become innovative.
So, in the current situation, it can be seen that the ethnic revolutionary organizations are taking over their own territories. There are no remnants of the Burmese army and Burmese administration left in the territories they have captured. What I mean is that in the ethnic areas that the ethnic revolutionary organizations have recaptured, the Burmese army, which had covered the thin shell to keep Myanmar from collapsing, no longer exists. The Burmese administration, which was protected and spread by the Burmese army, also no longer exists.
In terms of the situation on the ground, the Min Aung Hlaing group, which claims to be the current caretaker government, no longer has any influence over those ethnic areas. The NUG, which is shouting that it is the only legitimate government, also has no influence. In practice, there is no longer a Myanmar government that can cover the whole country. After the great Burmese STANDARD ARMY suffered a series of humiliating defeats for more than 70 years, Myanmar, which had been internally divided, has now become a reality with its own territory and its own ruler.
However, ethnic groups have not yet officially stated that they will establish separate countries. So, it can be said that Myanmar is not completely separated with completely separate existences. How will they reunite this? How will they work together to create a union again?
Looking at the current situation, there are questions about whether the ethnic groups really want to unite and whether the Bamar people really want to re-establish a union with equality for all ethnic groups.
If they are really going to work towards a genuine union, it can be said that it is more than time to do what should be done decisively. For example:
(1) A government like the NUG, which assumes that it has the right to rule the whole of Myanmar based on the results from the 2008 constitution, is no longer practical at this time and cannot bring about the unification of all for the union. Therefore, it is necessary to form an interim government in which all ethnic groups are represented.
(2) There needs to be an organization or organizations representing the Bamar people or the Bamar state. If the Bamar people say that they don’t want to form a state and will rule the whole country, or if the Bamar people want similar structures like the 2008 constitution that can control the whole country, then it is more likely that they will continue to be divided.
(3) The ethnic groups also need an organization or a united organization that can truly represent their own people and their own territory. If disagreements, unresolved issues, territorial disputes between organizations, and further rebellions by armed groups that have joined this union cannot be resolved, they will continue to be divided.
(4) When uniting, no group should try to use the kind of political tricks that the Bamar polticians have used for over 70 years. These things are already known to everyone at this time, so they will only harm the unification.
(5) When assigning positions, for example, if a Kachin person is appointed as the chairman, the Karen people will not like it, and if a Rakhine person is appointed, the Chin people will not like it. Instead of looking at ethnicity, religion, age, military strength, population, etc., looking at competence and integrity will lead to a more modern way of thinking.
(6) When setting basic principles, it is best to aim for reasonable negotiations to achieve what should be achieved (for example, disagreements that cannot be resolved due to reliance on population, military strength, territory, etc.). It is also necessary to be in line with the current era (for example, there must only be one Shan State, there cannot be new states such as Kokang, Wa, etc., and conversely, all 135 ethnic groups (this does not mean that this is accepted) have the right to form 135 states, whether or not the Bamar state should be given more than one state, such as Lower Myanmar and Upper Myanmar). It is necessary to be able to negotiate smoothly on how the union will be formed, how the government at each level will be elected, and how it will be governed (they have been divided on these issues throughout). The issue of the army should be the last sector to be dealt with after everyone has negotiated and agreed.
If such an interim government can be formed, then –
(1) Myanmar will be able to escape the danger of fragmentation and start moving towards a union.
(2) In the international community, it will gain political support as a government in which all ethnic groups participate. (It is necessary not to play childish tricks like the previous successive Bamar governments, where they include ethnic people who listen to them in a personal capacity and say that all ethnic groups are included.)
(3) It will also launch a counter-offensive against China’s revival of the military council as a legitimate government.
In fact, Myanmar has already been fragmented. But it is not yet completely disintegrated. It is in a state where each part is being held. If they do not try to reunite in this situation, they may gradually become truly fragmented. This is a worrying situation for the people who want a federal Myanmar.
In conclusion, the people of Myanmar are fighting against all dictatorial systems, including the military dictatorship. Even if no one is left because of the coup military council’s bombings, they are sacrificing the revolution to the end, saying, “Let them rule only the shell of the country,” but because the future processes are not yet clear, they are worried about how their leaders will continue the journey.
Nov 20 , 2024
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