Actually, it can no longer be said that this question is a bit premature. Of the 17 townships in Arakan, the Arakan Army currently controls 14. Only 3 townships remain: Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and Manaung. The Arakan Army has captured the area from Maungdaw in the northernmost part of Arakan Land to Gwa in the southernmost part. The remaining towns are also surrounded by the Arakan Army, so it will only be a matter of time. The Arakan Army will be able to completely capture the whole of Arakan Land sooner or later. Moreover, while the coup military council is continuously bombing the areas controlled by the Arakan Army, the Arakan Army A has also launched offensives into Ayeyawady Region, Bago Region, and Magway Region, which share borders with Arakan Land.
Within Arakan Land, which is controlled by the Arakan Army, the Arakan Army is implementing administration and public services under the name of the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government. However, the Arakan Army is going for a confederation. There has been no mention of establishing a new country or secession yet.
However, according to ground reports, it is highly likely that the Arakan Army will attack and capture Kyaukphyu and Sittwe if the military council does not withdraw from them. Due to the Shwe natural gas and Chinese projects in Kyaukphyu, Chinese involvement may be seen. But if China cannot make a good negotiation, city battles will break out in Kyaukphyu and Sittwe, and Arakan Land may be completely liberated from the coup military council before the 2025 rainy season.
Since the 2021 coup, the Arakan Army can be said to be the most successful militarily, and because the Arakan region is strategically important economically, politically, and militarily, and because of the strong desire of the Arakanese people for liberation and the establishment of a country, the Rakhine issue has become an important issue in Myanmar politics. Therefore, the question of whether the Arakan Army will establish a sovereign state after completely capturing Arakan Land has arisen in the Myanmar political process.
It is well known that establishing a country is not an easy task. A country does not become a country just by declaring independence, raising the national flag, or singing the national anthem. Also, the points made by experts regarding the main requirements for establishing a country are not all the same.
Among them, in addition to having a defined territory, a permanent population, a government that is not subordinate to another government, recognition and ability to interact with other countries, it is necessary to have sufficient energy resources, natural resources, economic resources, economic capital, technological resources, labor resources, expert resources, and domestic and international trade route resources. In addition, public service works such as education, health, and transportation are needed, as well as food, shelter, and security. It would be even more complete if there were separate own language, culture, and customs.
One of the main complexities can be said to be the issue of recognition by other countries. Some countries may recognize it, and some may not. For example, like Taiwan or Palestine, and so on. More important is getting UN membership. But is that so important? – It would be better if all the countries of the world recognized it, and if it got UN membership, but if you have other requirements and some countries that will recognize you, you can start operating. That is also closely related to the fact that if you get along with neighboring countries or a powerful country, you can build political and economic relations with it and its allies.
Although a country will not become a country just by declaring independence, some guarantees for territorial sovereignty and sovereignty will be obtained. What I mean is, a new country with its own territory, permanent population, own language, culture, a free government without other governments or their armies in its territory, and not being subordinate, even if it has not yet been recognized by other countries and other groups, will receive the benefit of the prohibition of the use of force by another country under the UN Charter. If they really attack, they will have to defend themselves.
So, will Arakan Land become a country again? The reason for using “will it become a country again” is that Arakan Land has also stood as a country for many years in the past. For that, the background circumstances and current situation of Arakan Land can be analyzed one by one.
(1) History
The existence of Arakan’s ancient Dvaravati kingdom is said to have started around 6000 BC, according to the Arakan chronicles. After that, the Arakan kingdom lasted for 4 great eras: Dhanyawadi (3325 BC – 327 AD), Vesali (327 AD – 818 AD), Lay Myo (818 AD – 1430 AD), and Mrauk-U (1430 AD – 1784 AD). The Dhanyawadi city walls, the Anandachandra inscription written in 729 AD during the Vesali era, and the Mrauk-U palace city walls and pagodas are strong evidence of the existence of the Arakan kingdom. It is not to say that a country must be founded if there is an ancient history, but Arakan has the right to establish a country historically.
(2) Defined Territory or Separate Territory
It has been firmly recorded in historical records that the boundary of Arakan Land was wider than the current boundary. Leaving those aside, Arakan now has a separate defined territory that is contiguous.
(3) Permanent Population
On a territory that is contiguous and has sufficient area, the Arakanese people and other ethnic groups live together as one group, with a permanent population (according to the 2014 census) of over 3 million. These are not people who have just moved in yesterday or the day before yesterday to build a country.
(4) Recognition by other countries
The issue of getting recognition from countries if Arakan declares independence may be difficult. It is unlikely among ASEAN countries. China also does not want to deal with Arakan as a country because Arakan is not its border, it is far from being controlled, and it faces the Indian Ocean, so it may break away from its influence at any time. But because it faces the Indian Ocean, it may not want it to become like Myanmar’s Taiwan.
India, on the other hand, is its border because Arakan Army holds Paletwa. It has also established a close relationship with the Myanmar military council, and it will be difficult for it to recognize a country that has declared independence from Myanmar due to its national policy. But India is following behind China’s moves in Myanmar, so it has a tendency to change its color by looking at China’s moves. Lately, it has been seen that India has been taking a little more frequent steps in Myanmar and Arakan affairs.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, is completely adjacent to Arakan and has a refugee problem. For this, there may be negotiations and trade-offs, and Islamic countries may be involved behind the scenes.
Japan and South Korea are also eyeing Arakan for their own interests. For the time being, nothing can happen yet. Western countries will also be on the waiting list. If the Arakan nation is clearly heading towards the path of democracy and human rights, opportunities may arise.
It can be analyzed that everyone will decide whether to recognize Arakan as a country and continue playing or not recognize it and continue playing, depending on the current political and military events in Myanmar and the direction it is heading.
(5) Government
Whether a country is established or not, there will be a government. The Arakan Army has been using the term Arakan People’s Government for quite some time. It is like a revolutionary government. If a country is established, it would be better for the international community if a government that includes everyone, both above ground and underground, is formed, rather than a revolutionary government or a government formed by the revolutionary army. If they try to settle down based on the path of democracy, they may get the support of democratic countries sooner or later.
(6) Natural Resources
As everyone knows, Arakan Land is rich in natural resources. Currently, natural gas is being extracted from Arakan offshore, and more has been discovered. It is known that oil can also be found. There are also abundant timber, bamboo, and seafood resources. If Arakan’s natural resources are systematically extracted and used, they can support the Arakan economy for a long time.
(7) Economic Foundations
Arakan has good economic foundations. In addition to oil and natural gas, there are agriculture, livestock, fisheries, timber, bamboo, and border trade. There are ancient pagodas, stupas, buildings, and everything from beaches, mountains, and waterfalls, so tourism can also be done well. The Arakan population and the basic rice produced in Arakan Land are more than enough.
Communication networks, daily necessities, and medicines, which will become indispensable when a new country is established, are also worth investing in. Labor resources are also readily available, so foreign factories and workshops may be opened. There are sufficient basic economic foundations for establishing a country.
(8) Trade Route
It is especially important for a country to have foreign exports and foreign income. In Arakan, Shwe natural gas is currently a solid foreign export. Seafood, forest products, agricultural products, and livestock products can also be exported abroad. The nearest are Bangladesh and India, which have large populations. Foreign exports can also be shipped by sea. In addition to not being a landlocked country, both land and sea routes can be used for trade.
(9) Own literature, Language, Culture, Customs
In Arakan, its own literature and language may have existed since the Dhanyawadi era. In the Vesali era (327 AD – 818 AD), the Anandachandra inscription, which was written in 729 AD, firmly proves that the Arakanese people were already able to write systematically. It is one of the earliest literate ethnic groups in Myanmar today. Likewise, it can be practically seen in Arakan Land today that it has its own distinct culture, from handicrafts and fine arts to customs.
In Arakan Land, the Rakhine, Chin, Thet, Khamee, Mro, Daingnet, Kaman, and even Bengalis who currently live there speak and use the Arakanese language. The Arakanese language is also one language, except for slight variations in accent depending on the region.
(10) Defense
The Arakan Army, which is fighting to take back Arakan Land from the coup military council, has revealed that it currently has more than 30,000 troops, but according to ground reports, it may be even more. Moreover, it is known that there are many people in Arakan who join out of patriotism and sense of responsibility without having to forcibly recruit soldiers, and even more can be obtained if needed.
It has been practically seen by everyone that the Arakan Army is good at systematically building, managing, and fighting a military. If it becomes a country and has a solid income, it will only have to equip the military to be more modern. Arakan has been able to build a modern, powerful, and well-fighting military in the region since ancient times.
11. The People of Arakan land
Arakan has a wealth of intellectuals and skilled professionals, with a long history of ICS officers dating back to British rule. Many Arakanese people currently hold positions in government departments and as leaders. The state also has a large labor force, with potentially over one million Arakanese people working outside the state. Many of these individuals could return if job opportunities were created within Arakan Land.
The Arakanese people’s willingness to make sacrifices during this revolution is directly proportional to their desire for an independent nation. This can also be attributed to the ineffective leadership of successive Bamar politicians.
Arakanese and Burmese people have similar literature, language, culture, and even physical appearances. (This is not to create division, but to highlight the incompetence of Bamar politicians.) Since independence, unifying Arakan with the Bamar could have brought stability and strength. (Instead, the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League focused on integrating the Bengalis in Buthidaung and Maungdaw.) Recent actions, such as the NLD government’s order to eliminate the Arakan Army, honoring soldiers who fought against the Arakan Army, declaring the Arakan Army a terrorist organization, and the NLD’s forced appointment of a Chief Minister despite the ANP’s majority win in the Rakhine State parliament, have fueled the desire for independence.
12. The Arakan Army Leaders
The Arakan Army leaders are widely trusted, respected, and accepted by the majority of Arakan Land. Across Myanmar, there is a sense of admiration for the emergence of capable leaders in Arakan Land.
The Arakan Army leaders have demonstrated resilience, organizational skills, foresight, timely action, ability to seize opportunities, forge alliances, and military expertise, all of which have been proven through tangible successes.
While their administrative and reconstruction efforts are still in their early stages, their systematic establishment of a government suggests their potential for effective governance in the future. They can be expected to choose an administrative system suitable and adaptable to the people of Arakan Land.
Tasks to be Finished
The Arakan Army still needs to capture remaining towns, including the strategically important Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and Manaung Island, which serves as a naval and air base for the coup military council. The presence of Chinese projects in Kyaukphyu may require negotiations for the coup military council’s withdrawal. The coup military council’s current stance and continued airstrikes suggest a reluctance to negotiate a withdrawal from Arakan Land, although this could also be a tactic to encourage negotiations.
Regardless of negotiations, the Arakan Army’s statements and interviews indicate their intent to eliminate any remaining military council presence in Arakan Land. However, given the unpredictable nature of such situations, this cannot be definitively stated.
Once Arakan Land is secured, the Arakan Army will face several crucial decisions:
Whether to negotiate a ceasefire with the coup military council, and if the military agrees, whether to end the revolution.
If the coup military refuses a ceasefire or continues airstrikes, whether to advance into central Myanmar and the Ayeyarwady region.
Whether to forgo negotiations with the coup military council and continue the Spring Revolution until its conclusion.
It is unlikely that the Arakan Army will abruptly halt its efforts to eradicate the dictatorship after securing Arakan Land. However, the presence of Chinese projects in Arakan and Western concerns regarding the Rohingya issue could influence the Arakan Army’s decision to move its operations to central Myanmar.
Will Arakan Become an Independent Nation?
Arakan has a history of nationhood and possesses the necessary attributes for it. The Arakanese people’s desire for an independent Arakan nation remains their ultimate goal, even after 240 years. Their sacrifices of lives, homes, and possessions demonstrate this unwavering commitment.
However, the Arakan Army leaders are known for their vision, strategic timing, and resilience. They are likely to carefully consider the advantages of establishing an independent nation versus participating in a federal union, as evidenced by their statements, interviews, and actions. They also appear to recognize their historical responsibility in eradicating the military dictatorship.
Therefore, the question of Arakan’s independence can be analyzed as follows:
Arakan may await an opportune moment to join a federal (or confederal) union. In the interim, they will govern Arakan Land with a suitable administrative structure and government.
When the time for a genuine federal union arrives, if any group, particularly the Bamar, attempts to exploit the system for political gain, similar to past practices, Arakan will likely choose independence. This includes scenarios where the NUG attempts to dominate the entire country or where the president and government are elected based on population, potentially leading to Bamar dominance.
If issues such as the Bamar state, the representation of Bamar community, granting statehood to other ethnic groups and regions, or establishing clear guidelines for regional representation, are not resolved promptly, Arakan may choose independence. Prolonged delays and inaction on these matters could push Arakan towards nationhood.
Therefore, while the Arakan Army’s capture of Arakan Land does not automatically imply a declaration of independence, Arakan’s future will depend on the actions, attitudes, decisions, and responses of the Bamar and other ethnic groups. Arakan could become independent depending on these factors.
This analysis, written on October 20, 2024, has been updated with additional information on February 12, 2025.
Will Arakan become a sovereign state again?
Nay Htet Moe Zaw
Introduction
Actually, it can no longer be said that this question is a bit premature. Of the 17 townships in Arakan, the Arakan Army currently controls 14. Only 3 townships remain: Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and Manaung. The Arakan Army has captured the area from Maungdaw in the northernmost part of Arakan Land to Gwa in the southernmost part. The remaining towns are also surrounded by the Arakan Army, so it will only be a matter of time. The Arakan Army will be able to completely capture the whole of Arakan Land sooner or later. Moreover, while the coup military council is continuously bombing the areas controlled by the Arakan Army, the Arakan Army A has also launched offensives into Ayeyawady Region, Bago Region, and Magway Region, which share borders with Arakan Land.
Within Arakan Land, which is controlled by the Arakan Army, the Arakan Army is implementing administration and public services under the name of the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government. However, the Arakan Army is going for a confederation. There has been no mention of establishing a new country or secession yet.
However, according to ground reports, it is highly likely that the Arakan Army will attack and capture Kyaukphyu and Sittwe if the military council does not withdraw from them. Due to the Shwe natural gas and Chinese projects in Kyaukphyu, Chinese involvement may be seen. But if China cannot make a good negotiation, city battles will break out in Kyaukphyu and Sittwe, and Arakan Land may be completely liberated from the coup military council before the 2025 rainy season.
Since the 2021 coup, the Arakan Army can be said to be the most successful militarily, and because the Arakan region is strategically important economically, politically, and militarily, and because of the strong desire of the Arakanese people for liberation and the establishment of a country, the Rakhine issue has become an important issue in Myanmar politics. Therefore, the question of whether the Arakan Army will establish a sovereign state after completely capturing Arakan Land has arisen in the Myanmar political process.
It is well known that establishing a country is not an easy task. A country does not become a country just by declaring independence, raising the national flag, or singing the national anthem. Also, the points made by experts regarding the main requirements for establishing a country are not all the same.
Among them, in addition to having a defined territory, a permanent population, a government that is not subordinate to another government, recognition and ability to interact with other countries, it is necessary to have sufficient energy resources, natural resources, economic resources, economic capital, technological resources, labor resources, expert resources, and domestic and international trade route resources. In addition, public service works such as education, health, and transportation are needed, as well as food, shelter, and security. It would be even more complete if there were separate own language, culture, and customs.
One of the main complexities can be said to be the issue of recognition by other countries. Some countries may recognize it, and some may not. For example, like Taiwan or Palestine, and so on. More important is getting UN membership. But is that so important? – It would be better if all the countries of the world recognized it, and if it got UN membership, but if you have other requirements and some countries that will recognize you, you can start operating. That is also closely related to the fact that if you get along with neighboring countries or a powerful country, you can build political and economic relations with it and its allies.
Although a country will not become a country just by declaring independence, some guarantees for territorial sovereignty and sovereignty will be obtained. What I mean is, a new country with its own territory, permanent population, own language, culture, a free government without other governments or their armies in its territory, and not being subordinate, even if it has not yet been recognized by other countries and other groups, will receive the benefit of the prohibition of the use of force by another country under the UN Charter. If they really attack, they will have to defend themselves.
So, will Arakan Land become a country again? The reason for using “will it become a country again” is that Arakan Land has also stood as a country for many years in the past. For that, the background circumstances and current situation of Arakan Land can be analyzed one by one.
(1) History
The existence of Arakan’s ancient Dvaravati kingdom is said to have started around 6000 BC, according to the Arakan chronicles. After that, the Arakan kingdom lasted for 4 great eras: Dhanyawadi (3325 BC – 327 AD), Vesali (327 AD – 818 AD), Lay Myo (818 AD – 1430 AD), and Mrauk-U (1430 AD – 1784 AD). The Dhanyawadi city walls, the Anandachandra inscription written in 729 AD during the Vesali era, and the Mrauk-U palace city walls and pagodas are strong evidence of the existence of the Arakan kingdom. It is not to say that a country must be founded if there is an ancient history, but Arakan has the right to establish a country historically.
(2) Defined Territory or Separate Territory
It has been firmly recorded in historical records that the boundary of Arakan Land was wider than the current boundary. Leaving those aside, Arakan now has a separate defined territory that is contiguous.
(3) Permanent Population
On a territory that is contiguous and has sufficient area, the Arakanese people and other ethnic groups live together as one group, with a permanent population (according to the 2014 census) of over 3 million. These are not people who have just moved in yesterday or the day before yesterday to build a country.
(4) Recognition by other countries
The issue of getting recognition from countries if Arakan declares independence may be difficult. It is unlikely among ASEAN countries. China also does not want to deal with Arakan as a country because Arakan is not its border, it is far from being controlled, and it faces the Indian Ocean, so it may break away from its influence at any time. But because it faces the Indian Ocean, it may not want it to become like Myanmar’s Taiwan.
India, on the other hand, is its border because Arakan Army holds Paletwa. It has also established a close relationship with the Myanmar military council, and it will be difficult for it to recognize a country that has declared independence from Myanmar due to its national policy. But India is following behind China’s moves in Myanmar, so it has a tendency to change its color by looking at China’s moves. Lately, it has been seen that India has been taking a little more frequent steps in Myanmar and Arakan affairs.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, is completely adjacent to Arakan and has a refugee problem. For this, there may be negotiations and trade-offs, and Islamic countries may be involved behind the scenes.
Japan and South Korea are also eyeing Arakan for their own interests. For the time being, nothing can happen yet. Western countries will also be on the waiting list. If the Arakan nation is clearly heading towards the path of democracy and human rights, opportunities may arise.
It can be analyzed that everyone will decide whether to recognize Arakan as a country and continue playing or not recognize it and continue playing, depending on the current political and military events in Myanmar and the direction it is heading.
(5) Government
Whether a country is established or not, there will be a government. The Arakan Army has been using the term Arakan People’s Government for quite some time. It is like a revolutionary government. If a country is established, it would be better for the international community if a government that includes everyone, both above ground and underground, is formed, rather than a revolutionary government or a government formed by the revolutionary army. If they try to settle down based on the path of democracy, they may get the support of democratic countries sooner or later.
(6) Natural Resources
As everyone knows, Arakan Land is rich in natural resources. Currently, natural gas is being extracted from Arakan offshore, and more has been discovered. It is known that oil can also be found. There are also abundant timber, bamboo, and seafood resources. If Arakan’s natural resources are systematically extracted and used, they can support the Arakan economy for a long time.
(7) Economic Foundations
Arakan has good economic foundations. In addition to oil and natural gas, there are agriculture, livestock, fisheries, timber, bamboo, and border trade. There are ancient pagodas, stupas, buildings, and everything from beaches, mountains, and waterfalls, so tourism can also be done well. The Arakan population and the basic rice produced in Arakan Land are more than enough.
Communication networks, daily necessities, and medicines, which will become indispensable when a new country is established, are also worth investing in. Labor resources are also readily available, so foreign factories and workshops may be opened. There are sufficient basic economic foundations for establishing a country.
(8) Trade Route
It is especially important for a country to have foreign exports and foreign income. In Arakan, Shwe natural gas is currently a solid foreign export. Seafood, forest products, agricultural products, and livestock products can also be exported abroad. The nearest are Bangladesh and India, which have large populations. Foreign exports can also be shipped by sea. In addition to not being a landlocked country, both land and sea routes can be used for trade.
(9) Own literature, Language, Culture, Customs
In Arakan, its own literature and language may have existed since the Dhanyawadi era. In the Vesali era (327 AD – 818 AD), the Anandachandra inscription, which was written in 729 AD, firmly proves that the Arakanese people were already able to write systematically. It is one of the earliest literate ethnic groups in Myanmar today. Likewise, it can be practically seen in Arakan Land today that it has its own distinct culture, from handicrafts and fine arts to customs.
In Arakan Land, the Rakhine, Chin, Thet, Khamee, Mro, Daingnet, Kaman, and even Bengalis who currently live there speak and use the Arakanese language. The Arakanese language is also one language, except for slight variations in accent depending on the region.
(10) Defense
The Arakan Army, which is fighting to take back Arakan Land from the coup military council, has revealed that it currently has more than 30,000 troops, but according to ground reports, it may be even more. Moreover, it is known that there are many people in Arakan who join out of patriotism and sense of responsibility without having to forcibly recruit soldiers, and even more can be obtained if needed.
It has been practically seen by everyone that the Arakan Army is good at systematically building, managing, and fighting a military. If it becomes a country and has a solid income, it will only have to equip the military to be more modern. Arakan has been able to build a modern, powerful, and well-fighting military in the region since ancient times.
11. The People of Arakan land
Arakan has a wealth of intellectuals and skilled professionals, with a long history of ICS officers dating back to British rule. Many Arakanese people currently hold positions in government departments and as leaders. The state also has a large labor force, with potentially over one million Arakanese people working outside the state. Many of these individuals could return if job opportunities were created within Arakan Land.
The Arakanese people’s willingness to make sacrifices during this revolution is directly proportional to their desire for an independent nation. This can also be attributed to the ineffective leadership of successive Bamar politicians.
Arakanese and Burmese people have similar literature, language, culture, and even physical appearances. (This is not to create division, but to highlight the incompetence of Bamar politicians.) Since independence, unifying Arakan with the Bamar could have brought stability and strength. (Instead, the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League focused on integrating the Bengalis in Buthidaung and Maungdaw.) Recent actions, such as the NLD government’s order to eliminate the Arakan Army, honoring soldiers who fought against the Arakan Army, declaring the Arakan Army a terrorist organization, and the NLD’s forced appointment of a Chief Minister despite the ANP’s majority win in the Rakhine State parliament, have fueled the desire for independence.
12. The Arakan Army Leaders
The Arakan Army leaders are widely trusted, respected, and accepted by the majority of Arakan Land. Across Myanmar, there is a sense of admiration for the emergence of capable leaders in Arakan Land.
The Arakan Army leaders have demonstrated resilience, organizational skills, foresight, timely action, ability to seize opportunities, forge alliances, and military expertise, all of which have been proven through tangible successes.
While their administrative and reconstruction efforts are still in their early stages, their systematic establishment of a government suggests their potential for effective governance in the future. They can be expected to choose an administrative system suitable and adaptable to the people of Arakan Land.
Tasks to be Finished
The Arakan Army still needs to capture remaining towns, including the strategically important Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and Manaung Island, which serves as a naval and air base for the coup military council. The presence of Chinese projects in Kyaukphyu may require negotiations for the coup military council’s withdrawal. The coup military council’s current stance and continued airstrikes suggest a reluctance to negotiate a withdrawal from Arakan Land, although this could also be a tactic to encourage negotiations.
Regardless of negotiations, the Arakan Army’s statements and interviews indicate their intent to eliminate any remaining military council presence in Arakan Land. However, given the unpredictable nature of such situations, this cannot be definitively stated.
Once Arakan Land is secured, the Arakan Army will face several crucial decisions:
It is unlikely that the Arakan Army will abruptly halt its efforts to eradicate the dictatorship after securing Arakan Land. However, the presence of Chinese projects in Arakan and Western concerns regarding the Rohingya issue could influence the Arakan Army’s decision to move its operations to central Myanmar.
Will Arakan Become an Independent Nation?
Arakan has a history of nationhood and possesses the necessary attributes for it. The Arakanese people’s desire for an independent Arakan nation remains their ultimate goal, even after 240 years. Their sacrifices of lives, homes, and possessions demonstrate this unwavering commitment.
However, the Arakan Army leaders are known for their vision, strategic timing, and resilience. They are likely to carefully consider the advantages of establishing an independent nation versus participating in a federal union, as evidenced by their statements, interviews, and actions. They also appear to recognize their historical responsibility in eradicating the military dictatorship.
Therefore, the question of Arakan’s independence can be analyzed as follows:
Therefore, while the Arakan Army’s capture of Arakan Land does not automatically imply a declaration of independence, Arakan’s future will depend on the actions, attitudes, decisions, and responses of the Bamar and other ethnic groups. Arakan could become independent depending on these factors.
This analysis, written on October 20, 2024, has been updated with additional information on February 12, 2025.
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Categories
Towards Arakan Dreams
The Failed Burma Unitary Systems
The Burmese Fear
Is China seeking an autonomous rule within Myanmar?
I must go home
Is Myanmar Falling Apart?
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Is Myanmar Falling Apart?
What Are We Revolting Against?
What Will We Gain from the Spring Revolution?